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Weekly Update | International Crisis Group
ON OUR RADAR  Conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts   

KOREAN PENINSULA  The recently-appointed U.S. special envoy for North Korea Sung Kim embarked on a five-day trip to Seoul, meeting his South Korean and Japanese counterparts. Crisis Group expert Chris Green says that the new envoy took the opportunity to reiterate the U.S.'s openness to unconditional talks with North Korea; for its part, Pyongyang had recently indicated readiness for both “dialogue and confrontation” with Washington. While Pyongyang’s immediate reaction was to caution the U.S. against hoping for an imminent breakthrough, the deep economic distress inside North Korea may change its leadership's political calculus, potentially increasing its willingness to engage diplomatically in the hope of getting more aid.

LIBYA  Representatives of Libya’s new interim national unity government joined foreign stakeholders at an international conference co-sponsored by the UN and Germany in Berlin on Wednesday. The gathering aimed to renew foreign commitment to supporting Libya's peace process, with a special emphasis on holding elections at the end of 2021 and encouraging the departure of foreign forces and mercenaries. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says the conference was a welcome initiative to inject new dynamism into a languid political process and the UN's struggling mediation effort. Yet the absence of clear operational plans and disagreements between foreign governments on how to implement and operationalise the political, military and financial tracks that form the backbone of the peace process are likely to hinder tangible progress.

BRIEFING

Containing the Volatile Sudan-Ethiopia Border Dispute

In mid-December, Sudanese troops moved into al-Fashaga, an agricultural area on the frontier with Ethiopia, expelling Ethiopian farmers and building fortifications. Fighting threatens to escalate. With assistance from outside mediators, the two countries should convene talks about restoring the shared land-use agreement that prevailed beforehand.

COMMENTARY

Engaging Iran Remains Vital after Presidential Election

Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, represents the hardliners within the Islamic Republic. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati explain why the U.S. should nevertheless persist in working to restore the 2015 nuclear deal to its full promise.

What Should Be on the Agenda for the UN Secretary-General’s EU Meetings

With Secretary-General António Guterres visiting Brussels, the UN and European Union have an opportunity to forge closer cooperation in global hotspots from Libya to Venezuela. Together, the two organisations can strengthen multilateral crisis management in a period of geopolitical tensions.
The Hard-Liners Won in Iran. That's Not All Bad News.
Dina Esfandiary, Senior Adviser for the Middle East and North Africa, Ali Vaez, Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director for Iran, The New York Times
Selling Normalization in the Gulf
Elham Fakhro, Senior Analyst for the Gulf States, MERIP
Germany’s Plain-Speaking ‘Man in New York’ Had a Good Run at the U.N.
Richard Gowan, UN Director, World Politics Review
Putting AUMF Repeal Into Context
Brian Finucane, Senior Adviser for the U.S., Just Security

PODCASTS

Understanding the Russian-origin Muslim Diaspora

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to University of Ottawa professor Jean-François Ratelle about the diverse Russian-origin Muslim diaspora across Europe, the various challenges faced in transit and host countries, and how to adapt migration policies accordingly.

Listen to the series on Apple Podcasts or Spotify

Biden in Europe

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group's U.S. Director Michael Hanna about President Biden’s trip to Europe and what it revealed about his foreign policy priorities, especially with respect to Russia and China.

Listen to the series on Apple Podcasts or Spotify

VIDEO

How Social Media Shapes Conflict

The rise of social media has been a welcome boost for free speech and equal representation, but this freedom can come with destabilising risks. Crisis Group's Interim Future of Conflict Director, Robert Blecher, and Economics of Conflict Fellow, Jane Esberg, explain how governments, civil society actors and technology companies can mitigate them.

INTERVIEWS

Iran Votes: What the election means for Tehran and the world
Voters in the Islamic Republic of Iran headed to the polls on Friday, 18 June. As predicted, Ebrahim Raisi emerged as the winner. Ahead of the elections, Dina Esfandiary, senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa, spoke to Foreign Policy Live about what the new leadership in Iran will mean for the country’s politics, regional dynamics as well as negotiations over a nuclear deal with the United States and Europe.
Ethiopian elections: In the eyes of the international community, this vote ‘is already tainted’
On 21 June, Ethiopians voted in general elections, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed seeking a popular mandate after his 2018 rise to power. Ahead of the elections, William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia, spoke to France 24 about why the long-delayed vote was finally being held, the likelihood of Abiy achieving the mandate he seeks, and the impact of the Tigray conflict on how elections will proceed and be perceived. 
Iranians decry, boycott election tipped in hard-liner’s favor by supreme leader
Iranians went to the polls Friday 18 June in a presidential election tightly managed by the Islamic Republic's clerical elite, who allowed only four men on the ballot. Ali Vaez, senior adviser to the president & project director for Iran, spoke to PBS News Hour about the elections, discussing favoured candidate Ebrahim Raisi and what implications they may have for the future of the Iran nuclear deal.

CRISIS GROUP IN THE NEWS

“It is very clear that it is politically affiliated paramilitary groups that are driving [the kidnappings and killings in Iraq]. They want to disincentivise [activists] from taking part in formal politics”.
– Lahib Higel,Senior Analyst for Iraq, Financial Times
“The Libyan parliament and the executive were not able to drive the process forward alone. This was why tensions between rival groups had increased again in recent times”.
– Claudia Gazzini,Consulting Senior Analyst for Libya, Al Jazeera
“[Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed] will have to decide whether to use the mandate to prioritize preventing mass starvation in Tigray, or whether he doubles down on a war that looks unwinnable”.
– William Davison,Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, The New York Times
“[The situation in Nicaragua harks] back to the anti-communist national security dictatorships of the 1970s. This is effectively removing the opposition as an actor”.
– Ivan Briscoe,Program Director for Latin America & the Caribbean, Foreign Policy
“The Taliban are strengthening their chokeholds around major [Afghan] cities. They are not necessarily in the near-term future going to try and take those cities".
– Andrew Watkins,Senior Analyst for Afghanistan, Al Jazeera
Mozambican authorities have expressed hesitancy about having regional boots on the ground, so it is not certain how this will be implemented”.
– Dino Mahtani,Deputy Program Director for Africa, Associated Press
“There is a realization by both sides [of the Iran nuclear deal] that restoring the status quo ante is not entirely possible”.
– Ali Vaez,Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director for Iran, Foreign Policy
“The General Assembly has effectively warned the [the Myanmar junta] generals that if they keep hold of power, they are resigning themselves to pariah status indefinitely”.
– Richard Gowan,UN Director, Associated Press
“[The arrest of David Campbell Licona in Nicaragua] seems to confirm the increased participation of the MS-13 in international drug smuggling”.
– Tiziano Breda,Analyst for Central America, VICE
“For an organisation like ISIS, sub-Saharan Africa is where you can have a lot of impact with minimal [investment of] resources”.
– Vincent Foucher,Consulting Senior Analyst for West Africa, The Guardian

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CONTACT US

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@RebeccaZerihun 
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Natasha Mulenga Hornsby
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Nairobi
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@nicodelaunay
+254 20 260 8861


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